Class of 2010
The next General Election promises to herald the biggest shakeup of the UK Parliament since Labour’s landslide victory in 1997. With extensive boundary changes to constituencies (only 55 constituencies in England and Wales are wholly unchanged), nearly 70 MPs (so far) retiring and a sustained Conservative Party lead in the opinion polls, there will undoubtedly be a significant change in the make-up of MPs whenever the Prime Minister decides to go to the country – most likely in the Spring of 2010 (the next General Election must be held no later than Thursday 3 June 2010).
An outright Conservative victory, however, remains far from certain. Due to some peculiar characteristics of our first-past-the-post electoral system, the Conservatives must achieve a 6.9% uniform swing across the country in order to win an overall majority – that is a Conservative lead in the opinion polls of over 9%. That is 10% more of the vote than Labour just to win the smallest of majorities, because its votes do not translate into seats in the way of those for Labour. To achieve such a swing, winning an overall Conservative majority, would at least equal, if not eclipse, the 1997 election victory of Tony Blair. This would be no mean feat and of historical proportions in British elections!
Madano’s definitive guide
As a result, Madano has been working on extensive and original research looking at the individuals that are likely to compose the parliamentary Class of 2010 – those Prospective Parliamentary Candidates (PPCs) that are most likely to win. We are publishing a definitive guide – ‘The Class of 2010’ - to this next generation of MPs profiling (photo and biographical information) the 242 candidates from all parties that are most likely to win. This should be an invaluable tool for anyone interested or actively involved in the political process.
Given the recent trends in opinion polls, the vast majority of the PPCs featured in our report are Conservatives, featuring the top 140 Conservative target seats (which must be won to require a 7% swing). We have also included the PPCs in the top 20 Labour and Liberal Democrat target seats because there are inevitably electoral quirks that buck the national voting trends, but the vast majority of these are unlikely to win in reality.
For note, the current Home Secretary Jacqui Smith, already under intense pressure, is the most important member of the Government who is in real danger of losing her seat at the next election. She faces the Conservative Karen Lumley who requires only a 2.3% swing to win.
The report also contains a host of other information for those interested in the detailed workings of the electoral process, including lists of MPs standing down, party target seats and details of the new constituencies.
The new generation
As part of our research for the report, we have carried out some preliminary analysis on the make-up of this new generation, comparing them with the generation of new MPs that entered Parliament in 1997. It makes for interesting reading. Here are some of the highlights.
In 1997 28% of the newly elected MPs were female. Of the 242 candidates featured in our report, 34% are female. However, this does not tell the whole story. 165 of the 242 candidates featured are Conservatives, but only 18% of the Conservatives are female (25% of the successful Labour candidates in 1997 were female). And so our preliminary analysis suggests that there will be fewer new female MPs than in 1997. Whether or not this will actually result in there being fewer female MPs in the next Parliament would require further research, analysing the gender of those current MPs most vulnerable at the polls, but the trend does not look hopeful!
Although candidates in their 40s still form the largest grouping, the likely successful candidates look as if they will be slightly younger overall. If elected, the Conservative candidate for Perth and North Perthshire, Peter Lyburn, who is currently 24, would become the new ‘baby of the house’ (the traditional name for the youngest MP), replacing Liberal Democrat Jo Swinson MP for East Dunbartonshire who was 25 when elected. This will not be that unusual however – there have been seven 21 year olds elected in the past. Overall, there are eight candidates featured in ‘The Class of 2010’ report who are currently still in their 20s.
The overall number of BME (ethnic minorities) candidates has increased fourfold from 2% in 1997 to 8% in 2010. This means that the proportion of the likely new intake in 2010 who could be described as ‘black or minority ethnic’ directly matches the most recent census data from 2001 which put the proportion of British citizens who were not from the ethnic group described as ‘white’ at 7.9%. There are nine black or minority ethnic Conservative candidates featured in ‘The Class of 2010’. The proportion of black or Asian MPs overall, however, will still be significantly below the national population average.
Education is one of the most interesting areas of our analysis. Whilst more detailed research will be required, the trend is clear – there has been a marked increase since 1997 in the number of winnable candidates who were educated at private or public school. Whilst our data is incomplete, we believe that over a third (34% or so) of the Conservatives attended private or public school, with a similar percentage amongst the Liberal Democrat candidates (although there are much fewer of these as a sample). The number of Labour candidates attending public or private school is tiny (1-2%). This change in education background is dramatic compared to the class of 1997.
Unsurprisingly, the background of the new intake will also be very different from that of 1997. There are dramatic increases in the numbers of likely new MPs with a business (13% in 1997 up to 19% in 2010) or finance background (5% to 9%). Those with a consultancy background will particularly increase dramatically (from about 4% in 1997 to around 15% in 2010).
Those who publically bemoan the predominance of ‘the political class’ and particularly those in politics who have known little else professionally may also worry that the number of prospective parliamentary candidates named in the class of 2010 who have previously worked in politics constitute 17% of the current total, up from 14% of the 1997 intake.
Overall, it appears that those who work in the private sector have risen slightly and the public sector fallen. However the changes are not that stark and the increasing intermixing of the public and private sectors’ functions, the rise of the third sector and the increased professional mobility that will have seen many candidates straddle both spheres in some capacity, means that we probably can’t make these broad observations of marginal change without fairly hefty caveats.
Want to know more?
If you are interested in finding out more or indeed purchasing a copy of ‘The Class of 2010’ for a reasonable fee (£199.00 for corporate and trade bodies and £149.00 for charities and not-for-profit), please contact Tim Carr and he’ll reserve you a copy now.
[...] » Class of 2010 - Comment & Analysis - Madano Partnership, London http://www.madano.com/comment/2009/05/14/class-of-2010 – view page – cached The next General Election promises to herald the biggest shakeup of the UK Parliament since Labour’s landslide victory in 1997. With extensive boundary changes to constituencies (only 55 constituencies in England and Wales are wholly unchanged), nearly 70 MPs (so far) retiring and a sustained Conservative Party lead in the opinion polls, there will undoubtedly be a significant change in the make-up of MPs whenever the Prime Minister decides to go to the country – most likely in the Spring of 2010 (the next General Election must be held no later than Thursday 3 June 2010). — From the page [...]