Rolling heads and histrionics
Talk of record numbers of MPs quitting amidst the Westminster expenses scandal is overcooked – so far.
With the country still fuming about the Westminster Watergates (the duck island and the moat), the media has been trying to gauge how many MPs will actually stand down at the next General Election. Should we believe some of the doomsday projections we’ve heard in recent weeks?
The narrative on swathes of MPs stepping down in the expenses scandal usually portrays the expenses row as central to the potential cull. In May the Times made some stark predictions:
“Senior whips believe the number of Labour MPs could rise to 170 - half the parliamentary party. “We think that one out of every two MPs will ultimately decide to go,” said a whip.”
“Party whips estimate that a further 35 Conservative MPs, mainly over the age of 60, will shortly announce their retirement.”
“The Liberal Democrats expect about five departures and a similar number of MPs from minor parties will retire.”
The Times’s rough estimate is a total of over 240 MPs to announce their departure at the next election. This would be quite a hike from the 98 who are currently set to stand down at the next election (18 of them involved in the expenses scandal). If the paper is right, the next election would see a number of retiring MPs unprecedented since the end of the Second World War.
Let’s be clear, the next election will be a landmark whatever the impact of the expenses scandal. In terms of the numbers of seats that change hands it is set to be the most significant since 1997. The numbers of Labour MPs standing down reflect the magnitude of 1997’s change when 70 Conservatives, mostly of more advanced years, couldn’t face the idea of an extended stay in the political wilderness. So far the expenses scandal has only mildly inflated the number of standing down MPs at the next election (accounting for 18 of the 98).
The fact that the expenses furore drew attention to the phenomenon of MPs standing down does not mean it drives it! Currently, judging by figures not bluster, things are on course for a 1997-style electoral landmark, not a 1945-style Parliamentary exodus.
There are the numbers so far
| 1997 General Election | 21st July 2009 | The Times Predictions |
|---|---|---|
| 110 left in total | 98 standing down in total | 240 to stand down in total |
| 70 Conservatives | 66 Labour | 169 Labour |
| 33 Labour | 26 Conservatives | 55 Conservatives |
| 6 Liberal Democrats | 5 Liberal Democrats | 10 Liberal Democrats |
| 1 Other | 1 Other | 6 Others |
While 11 MPs had been deselected by their party ahead of the 1997 election, still only five have been ejected in this fashion to date this time round - although some of the 18 other expenses sacrifices perhaps would have been deselected had they not promised to call it a day.
The expenses scandal is likely to have an influence on MPs mulling their future, but talk of another 90-100 Labour MPs throwing in the towel could be over-egged. Then again, the longer we wait for an election, the longer incumbents’ feet will itch. In any case, perhaps the biggest impact on the next election of the expenses scandal will be felt at the ballot box.
Madano has published a report on the likely future intake of MPs up to the point at which the Conservatives gained a slim overall majority at the next General Election. To read more visit: www.madano.com/classof2010
